Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Ron Paul Odds Slashed From 15 to 1 to 8 to 1


Following this weekend's Republican debate in Iowa and some extensive mainstream coverage and sound bytes., 2008 US Presidential candidate Ron Paul's odds to become the next Commander-in-Chief have been slashed further from 15 to 1 to 8 to 1.

The Presidential betting odds for most candidates have barely moved in recent weeks at Sportsbook.com and Ron Paul's odds have remained steadfast at 15 to 1 for the past two months after heavy action forced the online bookmaker to slash his odds from 100 to 1.

There are usually very little fluctuations this early in the campaign as most of the betting takes place the few months leading up to Election Day while in 2004, several million dollars were bet on Election Day alone.

Sportsbook.com is heavily referenced by Gambling911.com for its political betting odds menu. Sportsbook.com is the largest North American-facing sports betting website in terms of overall volume of customers.

2008 Presidential candidate Ron Paul sat down with Gambling911.com's Kira Wissman for a few moments Friday night following his speech at a rally in Mars, Pennsylvania, just outside Pittsburgh. The time spent was brief since Paul had to rush out on his way to Iowa the next morning.

Paul was very adamant regarding Internet gambling prohibition and Internet prohibition across the board.

Dr. Paul is co-sponsoring with Barney Frank (a Democrat). He said that Congressman Frank had approached him about co-sponsoring the bill to legalize online gambling and he had agreed.

“I believe strongly that the internet should not be regulated by the federal government and believes even more strongly that people should be free to engage in the activities they wish, as long as they are willing to take responsibility for their actions.”

I also asked about the likelihood of such a bill passing. He agreed its chances were remote because of the stigma attached to the internet.

“The majority of people in Washington were afraid to support the internet for fear it would label them ‘pro-porn’ or ‘pro-gambling’.”

Paul voted against anti-Internet gambling and poker legislation attached to an unrelated port security bill last October (The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, also known as UIGEA).

Heavy fluctuations in betting odds is typically caused by the amounts of money coming in (public betting action). For sporting events, news related to injuries and weather could play a role in line changes without relying first on public response (betting volume on a particular side).

At press time, Ron Paul's payout potential sat at $800 for every $100 bet. Amazingly, he was listed with the same odds (8 to 1) as Mitt Romney, who is widely considered to be among the front runners in the Republican party.

John McCain's odds remained at 5 to 1. Rudy Giuliani remained at 3 to 1 odds.

"The old taunt reflects a deep economic principle: Talk is cheap, but if someone is willing to risk money, it means they're serious," writes Tim Harford of Slate.com, a general-interest publication offering analysis and commentary about politics. "Put the principle into action and you realize that electoral forecasters should pay as much attention to the betting odds as to the opinion polls.

"When money is on the line, informed people, perhaps including insiders, have an incentive to turn their knowledge into cash by making big bets. In the process they make the odds more accurate. And of course, there are several reasons to lie to pollsters, but no reasons to make a money-losing bet."

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